US outlook: See no recession, hear no recession?

11 Jul 2023 | The economy stands on solid ground mid-way through 2023 as consumer spending remains resilient and businesses continue to hire. However, we see storm clouds on the horizon and anticipate a mild recession as the Fed remains reluctant to take its foot off the brake while credit...Register now

Energy Disorder

19 Jul 2023 | The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help businesses understand the trade-offs and implications of climate mitigation. This quarter our new scenario – Energy Disorder –...Register now

What can AE central banks learn from EMs?

18 Jul 2023 | Major advanced economy (AE) central banks have been criticised for the extent to which inflation has overshot target. Indeed, sticky core inflation and strong wage growth have prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada to resume tightening after a pause, while the...Register now

Nearshoring – China’s loss is not (yet) Mexico’s gain

20 Jul 2023 | Media frenzy over nearshoring in Mexico has failed to provide an accurate picture. Mexico is the best-positioned emerging market to gain from global trade dislocation but that does not mean it has seen the greatest benefits up to date. Asian economies and Canada have grown their share...Register now

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Featured research

Our team of 300 economists and thought leadership specialists are expert at applying advanced economic tools and research techniques to provide valuable insights into today’s most pressing business, financial, and policy issues. Notable recent studies include:

Temperature volatility comes at a price to worldwide growth

Pioneering research has used panel econometric techniques to estimate the economic impact of average temperatures. Building on that approach, we show that temperature anomalies from historical norms may be more consequential economically than average temperature levels. Read more

Global: COP27 to shift focus to developing economies

Concerns about energy security and extreme weather events support the case to accelerate the development of renewable sources of energy and pursue further action against climate change. COP27 is expected to build on the momentum generated by COP26, but progress has been underwhelming. Climate goals remain elusive, with current NDC pledges likely to lead to significant warming above industrial levels. Read more

Europe: The role of EVs in decarbonising European cities

A switch to electric vehicles (EVs) is vital if cities are to achieve net zero carbon emissions. In Europe the take-up of EVs currently varies hugely across cities, indicating that making the change is likely to be much harder for some than for others. Explanations include the degree of reliance on private versus public transport and differences in household income levels. Capital cities tend to do well: they have the scale, the density, the incomes, and perhaps also the necessary political will. Read more